Burn baby burn!

This morning the scale read 179.4 pounds - I've broken the 180 mark!

As you may have noticed, I've been losing weight at a much faster pace than originally calculated. My goal was to lose 35 pounds by October 29th (21 weeks from June 4th) and at that pace I should've weighed 188.3 this morning. In other words, I'm a whopping 8.9 pounds ahead of pace, which means:

• 20.6 lb./49 days since June 4th = 0.42 lb./day
• 35 lb./0.42 = 83.25 days to reach my target weight of 165
• Anticipated target date = June 4th + 83 days = August 26th

So why am I losing so much more weight than originally calculated? First off, here are the numbers calculated by USA Eat Fit for today:

• Baseline daily budget: 1,586 calories
• Intake reduction to reach goal: 839 calories
• Basal metabolic rate: 1,586 + 839 = 2,425 calories

The basal metabolic rate is the rate calories are burned to sustain vital functions (heartbeat, breathing, etc.), and thus represents the amount of food needed to keep one's weight constant (no gain or loss). Several factors affect BMR: weight, height, age and activity level. Of these, BMR is most affected by level of activity because regular exercise increases muscle mass, and more muscle mass burns more energy even at rest.

The BMR calculated by USA Eat Fit is based on an activity-level setting of "more active." Unfortunately, Eat Fit's weight-loss calculator has only three settings for activity level: less active, normal and more active. Most "complete" BMR calculators such as this one have additional settings for "very active" and "extremely active."

So how many calories am I actually burning? We can calculate it thus:

• Pace weight: 188.3 lbs.
• Actual weight: 179.4 lbs.
• Amount ahead of pace: 188.3 - 179.4 = 8.9 lbs.
• Allowance not eaten yesterday: 369 cal
• Extra calories burned: 8.9 lbs. × 3,500 cal/lb. – 369 cal = 30,781 cal
• Additional calories per day: 30,781 cal/49 days = 628 cal/day
• Actual BMR: 2,425 + 628 = 3,053 cal/day

Clearly, my activity level is higher than "more active." To classify it properly, let's use the Harris-Benedict formula for BMR:

• BMR (male) = 66 cal + (weight × 6.23 cal/lb.) + (height × 12.7 cal/in.) – (age × 6.8 cal/yr.)
• BMR (Tony) = 66 + (179.4 × 6.23) + (70 × 12.7) – (34.2 × 6.8) = 1,840 cal/day

This number represents BMR for a person at rest (no activity whatsoever, not even getting out of bed). Multiply this by adjustment factors for activity level:

BMR Adjustment Factors
Activity Level	Description	Adj. Factor	Adj. BMR (cal/day)
Sedentary	Little or no exercise	1.2	2,208
Lightly active	Light exercise/sports 1-3 days a week	1.375	2,530
Moderately active	Moderate exercise/sports 3-5 days a week	1.55	2,852
Very active	Hard exercise/sports 6-7 days a week	1.725	3,174
Extremely active	Very hard exercise + physical job or 2x/day	1.9	3,496

It's no surprise that my BMR falls nicely in the high end of the range between moderately and very active. USA Eat Fit's "more active" estimate of 2,425 equates to just under lightly active on this scale. It's obviously a very conservative number.

Now given this mountain of data, what should I do? Should I add 628 calories per day to my diet to ensure I fuel my runs and satisfy my appetite sufficiently? Or do I plow forward the way I've been going to ensure I reach my target weight?

So far I've been able to fuel my runs well enough with my current plan, so I'm going to opt for the conservative route. It would certainly be great to reach 165 pounds by August 26th. Besides, running my 30K distance on August 19th somewhere under 170 would mean two less bowling balls stressing my knees over 18.6 miles. How good would that be?